Beautiful analysis. Did the report calculate the increase in costs from longevity? (You know the actuaries do!) For example, if people taking GLP-1 drugs get fewer heart attacks and strokes, will more of them be getting joint replacements?
CBO left it out for now because they said the data is mixed. It's at the very bottom of the report (quoting the section here):
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Mortality
A final source of uncertainty is the degree to which AOM use could affect mortality rates and, in turn, federal spending. If AOM use reduced mortality rates—extending people’s life expectancy, on average—then it could boost spending on Medicare and Social Security because people would receive benefits through those programs for more years than they would if mortality rates remained unchanged.
Evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality lacks consensus, however. Recent analyses found that weight loss from use of GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced mortality from all causes among patients with type 2 diabetes and reduced cardiovascular-related mortality among patients without type 2 diabetes.[45] For other types of weight-loss interventions, the evidence is mixed: Some studies have shown reductions in mortality, whereas others found no association between weight loss and mortality.[46] Furthermore, randomized controlled trials that examined dietary interventions alone or in combination with physical activity generally found no changes in mortality.[47] Together, the evidence suggests caution about inferring mortality effects from AOM use.
Because evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality is evolving, CBO’s estimates of the illustrative policy’s effects do not consider that factor. If new evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality rates emerged, CBO’s budgetary estimates of the policy would differ.
Beautiful analysis. Did the report calculate the increase in costs from longevity? (You know the actuaries do!) For example, if people taking GLP-1 drugs get fewer heart attacks and strokes, will more of them be getting joint replacements?
CBO left it out for now because they said the data is mixed. It's at the very bottom of the report (quoting the section here):
***
Mortality
A final source of uncertainty is the degree to which AOM use could affect mortality rates and, in turn, federal spending. If AOM use reduced mortality rates—extending people’s life expectancy, on average—then it could boost spending on Medicare and Social Security because people would receive benefits through those programs for more years than they would if mortality rates remained unchanged.
Evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality lacks consensus, however. Recent analyses found that weight loss from use of GLP-1 receptor agonists reduced mortality from all causes among patients with type 2 diabetes and reduced cardiovascular-related mortality among patients without type 2 diabetes.[45] For other types of weight-loss interventions, the evidence is mixed: Some studies have shown reductions in mortality, whereas others found no association between weight loss and mortality.[46] Furthermore, randomized controlled trials that examined dietary interventions alone or in combination with physical activity generally found no changes in mortality.[47] Together, the evidence suggests caution about inferring mortality effects from AOM use.
Because evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality is evolving, CBO’s estimates of the illustrative policy’s effects do not consider that factor. If new evidence about the effects of weight loss on mortality rates emerged, CBO’s budgetary estimates of the policy would differ.